September 2022 - Page 55 of 60

September 1, 2022

Family Convinces Itself Grandmother Wanted Her Ashes Scattered Over Funeral Home Parking Lot

CHICAGO—Insisting that large expanses of asphalt were where Nana felt most at home, members of late Camila García’s family convinced themselves Thursday that their grandmother would have wanted her ashes scattered over the funeral home parking lot. “She loved this area and always went to the Burger King nearby, so…

AFC South Preview and Predictions: Can Henry’s Titans Continue Their Run?

Tennessee has been the class of the division lately, but it will face tougher competition in 2022.

For the past three years the AFC South has been ruled by the duo of Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel. The running back has propelled an unstoppable rendition of the outside-zone offense, and the Titans coach has designed a complementary defense while also creating a culture of fearlessness. Vrabel isn’t going anywhere anytime soon—he said as much following Tennessee’s surprise early ouster from the playoffs last season, when the No. 1 seed fell to the Bengals. But if the division seems more up in the air, it’s because Henry’s future is.

The 28-year-old missed nine games with a broken bone in his foot last year, and, when he returned for the playoffs, he did not look like the same back he was before the injury. It’s possible he simply returned too soon, but it raised the question of whether his massive workload—he led the league in rushing attempts in 2019 and ’20 and was 10th last year despite playing a partial season—might finally be catching up with him. The Titans drafted the tough-running Hassan Haskins of Michigan in the fourth round to add depth behind Henry. Beyond hoping Henry is his old self, the Titans must find a replacement for top receiver A.J. Brown, whom Tennessee traded to the Eagles. Ideally first-round pick Treylon Burks out of Arkansas would acclimate quickly.

The Titans also must fend off improved division rivals, most notably in Indianapolis. The Colts ditched sometimes-erratic quarterback Carson Wentz after one season in favor of Matt Ryan, the 2016 MVP who spent 14 seasons with the Falcons and became available during that franchise’s unsuccessful pursuit of Deshaun Watson. Ryan, 37, is the latest in a cattle call of veteran quarterbacks Indianapolis has turned to since Andrew Luck’s stunning retirement before the ’19 season. First, it tried Jacoby Brissett. Then Philip Rivers. Then Wentz. Last year Ryan threw for his fewest yards since ’10, but his supporting cast had slipped, and he could well be invigorated by a fresh start under Colts coach Frank Reich, who has earned a reputation as one of the best play-callers in the NFL. With Indy, Ryan will have the luxury of working with the best running back in the league, Jonathan Taylor.

The Texans and the Jaguars are unlikely to contend this year, but they will at least pose tougher tests than they did in 2021. After last season’s disastrous 13-game tenure of Urban Meyer, Jacksonville brought in Doug Pederson, who won a Super Bowl with the Eagles in ’17. Pederson’s seasoned staff includes Press Taylor, the brother of Bengals coach Zac Taylor, who will slide in as the offensive coordinator. Their presence should help ’21 top pick Trevor Lawrence get back on track from a rookie season in which, saddled with Meyer’s unimaginative designs, he threw 12 TDs and 17 interceptions.

Houston hopes its turnaround will be expedited by a new veteran coach, 64-year-old Lovie Smith, and a collection of young players. After having traded away so many picks in previous years, the Texans were able to add more young talent in this year’s draft. Third pick Derek Stingley Jr. of LSU is a potential star at cornerback, and guard Kenyon Green, the 15th pick out of Texas A&M, will bolster a line charged with protecting QB Davis Mills, who flashed enough potential in his 11 starts as a rookie to earn a second audition as the long-term starter in Houston.

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SI’S PROJECTED STANDINGS

1. Indianapolis Colts: 12–5
Best Case: Ryan shows he has some life left in his arm, and Taylor earns his second straight All-Pro nod at RB. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley fills in ably for the departed Matt Eberflus, now the Bears’ coach, and the Colts sweep through a vulnerable AFC South.
Worst Case: Ryan shows his age and becomes the third consecutive one-and-done quarterback in Indianapolis. That really hurts because the Colts have a deep roster full of talented players, but once again the signal-caller lets down a team that has Super Bowl upside.

2. Tennessee Titans: 9–8
Best Case: Pushed by the arrival of third-round QB Malik Willis, Ryan Tannehill has his best season to date. The Titans pick up where they left off in 2021 and, buoyed by a healthy season from Henry, again win the division—and their first playoff game in three years.
Worst Case: The offense struggles mightily, which prompts Tennessee to turn to the talented but raw Willis before he is ready. It seems unlikely that Vrabel would put his back against a wall, but desperate teams have made similarly rash moves since the dawn of football.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5–12
Best Case: Under Pederson, Lawrence shakes off a wobbly rookie year and plays like the generational prospect he was at Clemson. Nothing else really matters in Jacksonville in 2022, although it would be nice if this year’s top pick, DE Travon Walker, justifies the Jaguars’ choice.
Worst Case: Last year they fired the coach, and this year the Jaguars realize that head of player personnel Trent Baalke needs to go, too, after Walker disappoints and so does WR Christian Kirk, whose signing from Arizona (four years, $72 million) raised plenty of eyebrows.

4. Houston Texans: 4–13
Best Case: The Texans win six to eight games, and Smith is retained as coach. That provides much-needed stability at the top for an organization that in January fired David Culley after one season in which he somehow won four games with a broken roster.
Worst Case: The Texans stick with Mills as losses mount, and it becomes clear this team was assembled with an eye toward Houston’s ultimate goals of improved draft position and future salary-cap space. Their season demonstrates why tanking is a blight on the sport.

More NFL Coverage:

• Joe Burrow and the New Normal
• The (Not Always) Great Tua Debate
• What Fueled the Great Receiver Spending Spree of 2022

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Author: Conor Orr

September 1, 2022

Beat Cops

NFL Player Props: Mark Andrews Bets Breakdown

Breaking down Mark Andrews’s receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns prop bets.

Mark Andrews led all tight ends in targets, catches and receiving yards in 2021 and he tied for the league-lead at the position in touchdowns. Andrews finished firmly ahead of Travis Kelce in each of those categories to earn his first-ever All-Pro nod.

The Ravens’ top target set career highs across the board a year ago, and each of his 2022 prop markets appear well within reach. Andrews enters this season firmly entrenched as Lamar Jackson’s go-to receiving option, especially with Marquise Brown, his biggest competitor for targets, no longer in Baltimore.

Can Andrews deliver on his prop bets or is he due for some regression?

Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook

Receiving Yards: Over 950.5 (-112) | Under 950.5 (-112)

It’s worth noting Andrews has only broken the 900-yard mark once in his career. He, of course, smashed that last season with 1,361 yards, the sixth-most in the NFL.

Andrews accomplished that feat in large part because he saw the most opportunities of his career by a long shot: His targets almost doubled from his career average of 78.7 to 153 and his receptions rose accordingly.

AFC North Over/Under Wins Total: CIN | PIT | CLE

There’s no reason that should change this season. The Ravens shipped out Brown and didn’t replace him, which makes Rashod Bateman the de facto WR1 but no one is supplanting—or even threatening—Andrews as the top target

Andrews was incredibly consistent last season as well. He broke 100 yards five times but still racked up yardage with the league’s best even when he didn’t hit the century mark. On a 17-game pace, a player would have to average a little less than 56 yards to break 950.5. He surpassed that mark in 13 games last season with his worst game coming in the season opener when he had just 20 yards.

Even with that bringing down his numbers, Andrews averaged better than 80 yards per game. He can regress more than 20 yards per game and still comfortably hit his over if he plays a full 17-game season.

BET: Over 950.5 receiving yards (-112)

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Receiving Touchdowns: Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-118)

Touchdowns are more random to predict year-to-year than yards or catches. What we do know is Andrews has caught more than 7.5 touchdowns twice—last season (nine) and in 2019 (10). He has 10 combined in his other two seasons for an average of 7.25 per year in his four-year career.

When given the chance, Andrews has delivered on scoring opportunities. The two seasons he went under this total he averaged 69 targets per year. And the two times he went over, he saw 125.5 on average. That’s a massive difference for the 6’5” target and it helps explain his discrepancies year to year.

NFL Awards Betting: Coach | Comeback Player | Defensive Rookie | Offensive Rookie | Defensive Player

Andrews’s snap percentage has gone up each season, peaking at 75% in 2021. The more he’s on the field, the more targets he’ll see, specifically the all-important red zone looks where he scored all nine of his touchdowns last season.

Only 15 players in the NFL had nine or more scores last year. Andrews was one of them and I like him to repeat or even build on that success.

BET: Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns (-118)

Receptions: Over 83.5 (-112) | Under 83.5 (-112)

This is where I think regression comes for Andrews.

It’s no insult to say he won’t reel in 100 passes again this season, something only 10 players did last year. Of all the career highs Andrews set in 2021, his 107 receptions were perhaps the biggest outlier based on his career performance. Including last season, he averages a little more than 65 catches per year.

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I expect the Ravens, with a hopefully healthier running back room and a full season from Jackson, to run more often. Additionally, Bateman might contend with Andrews more so for receptions than for yards or touchdowns.

Only 17 players had more than 83.5 catches last year and only two (Andrews, Kelce) were tight ends. I don’t expect a massive dip but this number feels a bit too high for my liking.